Rajasthan News

BJP getting 115-125 seats in Rajasthan on Pre Poll Survey

by RajasthanDirect
Oct 29, 2013

Ruling Congress under pressure of inflation and corruption may provide feasibility to coming back of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government after five years. According to the CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS Pre-Poll Survey BJP will be major victory party in the forthcoming Assembly elections.Rajasthan Poll Survey

The survey shows the BJP returning to power with 115-125 seats in the 200-member Assembly while the ruling Congress is expected win just 60-68 seats. The BSP is likely to get 4-8 seats and others may get 8-12 seats according to the projection by Dr Rajeeva Karandikar, Director, Chennai Mathematical Institute.

BJP will gain 7% votes to 41% as compared to its 2008 vote share of 34.3 per cent in 2008 election and party at seat Congress may getting just 32 per cent of votes with a loss of 5 per cent of votes.

The BSP is likely to retain its strength with seven-per cent vote share. Others may get 20 per cent votes. In 2008 Assembly elections, the Congress came to power with 96 seats and the BJP bagged 78 seats. The independents won 14 seats and other smaller parties won the remaining seats. In the hotly contested polls in the desert state, a high level of anti-incumbency is likely to end Ashok Gehlot’s rule.

As per survey, the reasons for dissatisfaction among the people of Rajasthan are Lack of development, high price rise and corruption. Just 31 per cent of the respondents want the Congress to retain power with 45 per cent voicing their opposition to the party. Former chief minister and BJP’s CM candidate Vasundhara Raje has got 43 per cent of the popular support for the post of Chief Minister in the survey.

Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is favoured by just 25 per cent people and Union Minister CP Joshi has got just 3 per cent, Kirori Lal Meena 2 per cent and another Union Minister Sachin Pilot has also got 2 per cent of popular support for the top post in the state.

Another interesting find of the survey is Vasundhara Raje’s popularity is at an all time high. When Raje rode to power in 2003, her popularity rating was just 33 per cent. Even when she lost the power in 2008, she was more popular than Ashok Gehlot, who became the Chief Minister.

According to the survey, when voters were given only Gehlot and Raje as options for CM, she widened her lead further. She is doing better than Gehlot even among the SC/STs. Surveyed voters feel that prices and corruption increased and employment has decreased in the last 5 years of the Congress rule.

A huge majority of 88 per cent of the respondents have answered that the price has increased in the last 5 years, making it the top electoral issue. Rising corruption occupies the second place with 71 per cent and the lack of employment in the third place with 25 per cent. The survey was conducted between October 14 and October 21. It was conducted in 49 Assembly seats and 196 polling stations. A total of 4900 voters were targeted and 4427 voters responded to it. The ruling Congress seems to have lost a significant number of votes in the gap of just 3 months between July 2013 and October 2013.

Only 50 per cent of the voters are happy with the ruling Congress MLAs. Fifty-five per cent of the respondents have heard about Babulal Nagar, the Congress minister who is now in jail in an alleged rape case and 78 per cent respondents say, they have heard about Asaram sexual exploitation case.

Seat Projections For Rajasthan

Total seats: 200

Seats Seats Votes Votes Votes
Party 2013

(Estimate)

2008

(Actual)

2008

(Actual)

Oct 2013

(Estimate)

Change since

2008

BJP 115-125 78 36.8 32 -5
Congress 60-68 96 34.3 41 +7
BSP 4-8 6 7.6 7 -1
Others 8-12 20 21.3 20 -1

src: http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bjp-may-win-rajasthan-with-115125-seats-cnnibnthe-weekcsds-prepoll-survey/431258-80-262.html

Comments are closed.